Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.018962 0.021508 0.024275 0.027509 0.031184 0.035236 0.040042
2025-05-11 0.014668 0.018090 0.022137 0.027283 0.033661 0.041320 0.051234
2025-05-18 0.012397 0.016181 0.020920 0.027301 0.035691 0.046375 0.061061
2025-05-25 0.010641 0.014545 0.019667 0.026896 0.036871 0.050201 0.069452
2025-06-01 0.009579 0.013628 0.019159 0.027293 0.039000 0.055318 0.079927
2025-06-08 0.008548 0.012601 0.018341 0.027094 0.040176 0.059110 0.088795
2025-06-15 0.007969 0.012139 0.018242 0.027868 0.042762 0.065083 0.101361
2025-06-22 0.007046 0.011054 0.017099 0.026929 0.042627 0.066909 0.107691
2025-06-29 0.006395 0.010316 0.016397 0.026572 0.043311 0.069990 0.116205
2025-07-06 0.005714 0.009458 0.015418 0.025662 0.042987 0.071380 0.122012
2025-07-13 0.005485 0.009310 0.015558 0.026582 0.045738 0.078006 0.137211
2025-07-20 0.005229 0.009091 0.015553 0.027242 0.048086 0.084125 0.152070
2025-07-27 0.005005 0.008913 0.015613 0.028041 0.050789 0.091172 0.169430
2025-08-03 0.004629 0.008435 0.015114 0.027802 0.051613 0.094960 0.181207
2025-08-10 0.004332 0.008071 0.014779 0.027821 0.052893 0.099664 0.195129
2025-08-17 0.004004 0.007618 0.014243 0.027408 0.053306 0.102755 0.206182
2025-08-24 0.003816 0.007411 0.014142 0.027813 0.055323 0.109074 0.224250
2025-08-31 0.003568 0.007067 0.013751 0.027610 0.056108 0.113028 0.237843
2025-09-07 0.003457 0.006983 0.013854 0.028399 0.058961 0.121361 0.261400
2025-09-14 0.003162 0.006504 0.013135 0.027442 0.058109 0.122006 0.268498
2025-09-21 0.002956 0.006188 0.012719 0.027078 0.058468 0.125198 0.281456
2025-09-28 0.002711 0.005772 0.012065 0.026150 0.057524 0.125508 0.287955
2025-10-05 0.002660 0.005765 0.012265 0.027088 0.060761 0.135207 0.316915